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Decision Tree Assignment
Play now? Play later?
You can become a millionaire! Thats what the junk mail said. But then there was the fine print:
If you send in your entry before midnight tonight, then here are
your chances:
% that you win $1,000,000
% that you win nothing
Otherwise, you must PAY $1,000

But wait, theres more! If you dont win the million AND you dont have to pay on your first
then you can choose to play one more time. If you choose to play again, then here are
your chances:
% that you win $100,000
% that you win $500
Otherwise, you must PAY $2,000
What is your expected outcome for attempting this venture? Solve this problem using
a decision tree and clearly show all calculations and the
expected monetary value at each node.
Use maximization of expected value as your decision criterion.
Answer these questions:
1) Should you play at all? (5
%) If you play, what is your expected (net) monetary value? (15
2) If you play and dont win at all on the first try (but dont
lose money), should you try again? (5
%) Why? (10
3) Clearly show the decision tree (40
%) and expected net
monetary value at each node (25

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